Impact Assessment
Frameworks.

Rigorous quantitative and qualitative approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions and provide evidence-based insights for policy making.

Strategic
Evaluation Tools.

While RCTs provide high causal rigor, Quasi-experimental methods (DiD, RDD) are more common in "real-world" settings where we evaluate policies after they have already begun. For a framework to be effective, it must match the Theory of Change developed at the start of the project.

TREATMENT CONTROL RANDOM
Experimental

Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT)

The "Gold Standard" of impact evaluation, using random assignment to eliminate selection bias and isolate the true effect of a program.

Best Used When

You have full control over who receives the intervention before it starts (e.g., new pilot programs).

INTERVENTION DiD Treated Control
Quasi-Experimental

Difference-in-Differences (DiD)

Uses "Parallel Paths" logic to compare the change in outcomes over time between a treatment group and a comparison group.

Best Used When

Evaluating "natural experiments" like a policy change in one region but not another.

CUTOFF Jump
Quasi-Experimental

Regression Discontinuity (RDD)

Evaluates program impact by comparing individuals just above and just below a strict numeric eligibility cutoff.

Best Used When

Programs are mandated for those who qualify based on a score or income level.

TREATED COMPARISON POOL MATCHED PAIRS
Quasi-Experimental

Propensity Score Matching (PSM)

Statistically matches participants with non-participants who share similar observable traits to "create" a control group.

Best Used When

Randomization is impossible and you need to build a comparison group from existing data.

Z Instrument X Treatment Y Outcome NO DIRECT EFFECT
Quasi-Experimental

Instrumental Variables (IV)

Uses an external "Instrument" factor that affects participation but not the outcome directly to account for unobserved bias.

Best Used When

Motivation or other unobserved factors make it hard to tell if the program caused the result.

Theory of Change (ToC)

The blueprint for impact. Unlike mathematical methods, this is a conceptual map used during the planning phase to link activities to long-term goals.

A Theory of Change defines the "logic" of why a project will work. It maps out the causal link between what we do and what we hope to achieve.

01

Inputs

Resources needed (funding, staff, tech).

02

Activities

Actions taken (building, training, advising).

03

Outputs

Immediate results (wells built, students trained).

04

Outcomes

Short-term changes (better health, higher scores).

05

Impact

Long-term goal (lower mortality, economic growth).

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